Why BYU will go 4-8 in 2024 and what it means for the future
Kalani Sitake's team will slog its way to four wins as it battles to overcome a significant talent gap and a very tough schedule.
With BYU’s first game of the 2024 season kicking off this week, it’s time to go on the record and not only predict how many games Kalani Sitake’s squad will win this year, but what the implications will be.
And I’ll just state this up front: My goal here is to be as dispassionately realistic as possible and not let my blue-tinted BYU fandom influence my outlook. I’m approaching this exercise rationally as though I’m Spock from Star Trek, but unlike the logical Vulcan I still suffer from PTSD whenever I see BYU’s defense drop eight into coverage.
Here we go.
BYU Wins - 4: Southern Illinois, at Wyoming, at Arizona State, Houston
BYU Losses - 8: at SMU, Kansas State (18), at Baylor, Arizona (21), Oklahoma State (17), at UCF, at Utah (12), Kansas (22)
If BYU’s season plays out as I think it will, this means the Cougars will go on a seven game losing streak beginning Saturday September 21st and lasting until Saturday Saturday November 23rd. That’s two straight months without a single win, something that’s virtually unprecedentedly Provo, but that’s how the schedule falls.
Let’s explore why BYU will struggle so much this year.
Reason No. 1 - The Talent Gap
The most obvious reason BYU will win just two conference games in 2024 is the massive talent gap the team faces against its conference foes. As Nick J. Lee recently pointed out at Vanquish the Foe, BYU’s overall talent from top to bottom is nowhere near being competitive in a Power Four conference. 247 Sports Talent Composite not only ranks the talent BYU has recruited on its roster as the lowest in the Big 12, it’s the lowest of any Power Four team.
Just pause and let that sink in: BYU has recruited less talent on its roster than any other Power Four program.
Oof.
While BYU is known as a solid developmental program, the coaching staff is developing mid-three star high school prospects instead of guys with high-three stars or four stars. The Cougars have recruited eight four star talents on their roster. Eight. TCU has 23. UCF has 22. Utah has 20. Colorado has 20. It’s just not possible for player development and “grit” to overcome that massive talent gap to a sustainable degree in the meatgrinder that is Power Four football.
Until BYU can consistently land better high school talent, the program will be relegated to the bottom tier of the Big 12 conference. Period.
So how is the 2025 recruiting class shaping up?
The simple answer: More of the same.
BYU’s 2025 recruiting class already includes 16 players and none of them are composite four star talents as rated by 247 Sports. The Cougars have whiffed thus far on every single four star athlete they’ve recruited for next year, so the talent gap may only widen heading into next season. The 2025 class is currently ranked No. 64 nationally, just ahead of Georgia State (68), Toledo (69), and Florida Atlantic (70).
Reason No. 2 - The Brutal Schedule
BYU must have angered somebody in the Big 12 scheduling department because the Cougars will run the gauntlet of the conference’s best teams this year.
BYU’s strength of schedule ranks No. 26 nationally and is the toughest in the Big 12. Home games against No. 18 Kansas State, No. 21 Arizona, No. 17 Oklahoma State, and No. 22 Kansas could result in more losses at LaVell Edwards Stadium than most Cougar fans can remember. BYU could realistically only win two home games this year - their first home affair against Southern Illinois and their last one against Houston.
The Cougars didn’t do themselves any favors with their nonconference schedule, either. SMU is loaded with talent including one five star and 24 four star athletes (remember, BYU has recruited eight four star players). Yes, the Mustangs looked bad in their narrow Week 0 win at Nevada, but playing SMU on the road will likely be a loss for the Cougars.
Even playing at Wyoming is silly. These teams have despised each other for decades. Hosting BYU this year will be Wyoming’s “Super Bowl” for their team and their fans. I already feel like a handful of BYU players are going to suffer significant injuries in this snot knocker of a contest. When BYU hosted Wyoming in 2022 the Cougars had to slug and slog their way to an unsatisfying 38-24 win, and that was with Jaren Hall under center. I have BYU winning this game but it’s closer to a 50/50 proposition than most people think. The Cougars should have paid the fee to buy their way out of this matchup and found a less vitriolic opponent, which is the approach most Power Four teams take.
Reason No. 3 - The QB Conundrum
The fact that Jake Retzlaff didn’t seize the No. 1 quarterback position months ago from transfer Gerry Bohanon is more than concerning. While BYU’s staff is understandably playing the “it’s an open competition card”, this most likely signifies that Retzlaff didn’t make the year-over-year progression Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick was anticipating. If Retzlaff had, he likely would have been named the starter a weeks ago so he could get all of the practice reps possible with the first team offense and let that unit gel.
The observations coming from camp is that one week it looks like Jake’s the guy, then the next week Bohanon had a better performance.
That’s not good.
What we aren’t hearing is this: “Holy cow! Both of these dudes look incredible. Like, either one of them could light the Big 12 on fire this season. They are just throwing dimes out there.”
Instead, the benchmark has been lowered to which QB is outplaying the other on a week-to-week or even day-to-day basis. That means they are both showing inconsistency and have failed to earn the full trust of the coaching staff going into the team’s first game. One of them will win the starting job, of course, but Retzlaff’s inability to win the job outright months ago is an ominous sign.
I hope whoever wins the starting quarterback role proves me wrong. I want both of them to succeed and will be pulling for them. But the smoke signals coming from camp aren’t promising.
Reason No. 4 - The Defensive Front Four
The lingering effects of years worth of subpar recruiting by BYU’s former defensive staff continues to haunt the Cougars. While defensive end Tyler Batty is a Preseason All-Big 12 selection, the rest of the front four is unproven or has been unproductive in the past. BYU ranked 109 of 130 FBS teams last year in defending the run and they recorded just 11 sacks on the season.
The Danny Saili fiasco was a gut punch - signing the massive DT transfer only to lose him back to the transfer portal before he played a down in a BYU uniform. The team has not added any defensive tackles or defensive ends who are plug-and-play difference makers. Perhaps linebacker Jack Kelly can be used to get pressure off the edge, but he’ll be more situational than a constant source of disruption.
Yes, the defensive line returns a bunch of contributors from last year, but at this point it would be surprising to see any of them truly “make the leap”. The defensive line has a number of upperclassmen who have probably reached somewhere near their ceilings along with younger guys who probably aren’t quite ready for prime time.
While I’m 100% riding the Jay Hill bandwagon and believe that given time BYU’s defensive coordinator can build a thriving defense, he’s still playing with one hand tied behind his back due to the massive talent gap BYU’s defense will face against Big 12 competition. Unfortunately, I envision 2024’s defense playing out much like last year where BYU struggles to stop the run, get off the field, and flip field position.
What are the Implications of Going of 4-8?
First, Kalani Sitake and Aaron Roderick will have very hot seats going into 2025, especially Roderick. I’m thoroughly convinced Kalani should be allowed to coach through his contract which expires after the 2027 season. Moving to a Power Four conference is tough and it takes time to adjust. Kalani is a good coach and a great representative for the school and the church that sponsors it, and that skillset among college coaches doesn’t grow on trees. Give the man time to succeed (or fail) in the Big 12. But if BYU’s offense falls flat again in 2024, it could spell the end of Aaron Roderick’s tenure in Provo.
Second, after going 4-8 BYU fans will grow apathetic and frustrated. A seven game losing streak, just two conference wins for the second straight year, and no bowl game will do that to a fanbase accustomed to winning. This is especially true given the gains BYU basketball seems to be making, and if Kevin Young delivers a solid season, BYU football could quickly be relegated as second chair to basketball, a thought that was almost blasphemous a year ago, but here we are.
However…perhaps a frustrated, apathetic football fanbase could turn out to be a good thing.
Maybe losing the fanbase will finally prompt BYU’s administration to become more strategic with NIL in football and finally hire the recruiting staff the team needs to consistently land better talent. Last year recruiting expert and former BYU kicker Moose Bingham appeared on ESPN 960 and said this:
“BYU hasn’t invested in its recruiting staff. It’s embarrassing and it’s awful to watch. I’m embarrassed that we haven’t put money where our mouth is…If recruiting really is our number one thing, then get recruiters in there. Justin Anderson can only do so much.”
Wow. That’s a pretty brutal assessment from somebody in the high school recruiting profession with ties to the BYU program, but it’s accurate. If stumbling to a 4-8 season in 2024 finally kickstarts BYU’s commitment to investing in recruiting, one season of pain might be worth the long-term benefit.
The third implication of a 4-8 season is unless Jake Retzlaff has a breakout 2024 campaign (which I hope he does), BYU will be forced to hit the transfer portal hard for a starting quarterback in 2025. The quarterback room is concerningly thin right now. There is no guy who’s clearly waiting in the wings, being deliberately groomed as the next great signal called from QB-U.
Noah Lugo is a freshman this year. Transfers McCae Hillstead and Treyson Bourget have starting experience elsewhere, but not at the Power Four level and neither showed enough this year to truly battle for a starting spot. The team lost Ryder Burton in the transfer portal to Big 12 rival West Virginia. None of the guys in BYU’s quarterback room are four star talents. BYU’s power brokers will need to write a significant check to a quarterback next year, preferably one that has at least two years of eligibility remaining.
The Summary
Get ready for a frustrating, disappointing, apathy-inducing season, Cougar fans. It’s going to be a slog. I hate to say this because I’m a lifelong BYU fan and a BYU graduate, but I’m putting my emotions to the side. On paper, I see a team that’s going to struggle.
Now, I hope I’m wrong. I want nothing more than for people to repost this article at the end of the season after BYU goes 8-4 and makes a meaningful bowl game. I want BYU’s quarterback - whoever it is - to have a superb season. I want BYU to succeed. I want BYU to win.
But I think 4-8 is far more likely than 8-4.
Again, I hope I’m wrong.